Fiscal & Debt
All topics →Debt spirals, military spending, breakeven prices, government spending
Research (8)
Aging Economies
Japan is the future — and most countries aren't ready. Population aging will break budgets, shrink workforces, and reshape economies. The timeline is visible in the data.
The Debt-Trade Spiral
Persistent trade deficits and fiscal deficits compound into a debt spiral visible across decades. The data shows which countries are trapped — and which broke free.
Who Funds Their Own Defense
Who's actually paying for Western security? We mapped NATO defense spending against the 2% target. The free-riding is measurable — and the dollar gap is enormous.
Guns vs Butter in Numbers
Every dollar spent on tanks is a dollar not spent on teachers. We mapped military, education, and health spending for every country — the priorities are stark.
The Manufacturing Exodus
The rich world stopped making things — then wondered why it couldn't. We tracked manufacturing's 30-year migration from West to East, in GDP and trade data.
Oil Price & Fiscal Breakeven
Saudi Arabia needs $80 oil to pay its bills. It didn't always. We estimated fiscal breakeven prices for every major oil producer — and tracked how they rose.
Petrostates Under Pressure
What happens when the world stops buying your only product? We mapped oil dependency, fiscal breakevens, and diversification progress for every petrostate. Most aren't ready.
Commodity Supercycles & Inflation
Every inflation crisis in 50 years was foreshadowed by commodity markets. We traced the supercycles — and what they tell us about where we are now.
Explainers (10)
Base effects
Why year-over-year numbers can look dramatic simply because last year was weird.
Capital account / financial account
The mirror image of the current account: how deficits get financed and why ‘money leaving’ is often backwards.
Debt sustainability: why the number that matters isn't the debt level
Japan survives at 250% debt-to-GDP. Argentina collapses at 60%. The difference is everything.
Exchange-rate pass-through
How currency moves translate into domestic prices—and why it’s rarely one-for-one.
Fiscal breakeven: the price that keeps the lights on
Every petrostate has a magic number — the oil price needed to balance the budget. It almost always goes up.
GDP growth headlines: nominal vs real vs per-capita
GDP can rise while living standards stall. Here’s the 3-number checklist that avoids bad headlines.
Inflation: What people mean vs what the data measures
Inflation stats aren’t lying—but they’re not measuring your life either. Here’s why the gap happens.
Purchasing power parity: why $1 isn't $1 everywhere
Nominal exchange rates lie about living standards. PPP is the correction — and it changes the global picture dramatically.
Real vs nominal
The difference between changes in prices and changes in output—and why nominal numbers can lie during inflation.
The “Strong Dollar” explanation that doesn’t insult your intelligence
Why the dollar strengthens, who it helps/hurts, and why ‘good for America’ is too simple.